Could FIFA Face an Italy-Style Probe? What Activision Investigations Mean for FUT

Hook: Why FUT buyers, streamers and merch hunters should care right now

If you buy FUT packs, chase limited drops, or sell FIFA/EA-related merch, this matters. Italy’s competition watchdog (the AGCM) has opened investigations into Microsoft’s Activision for alleged misleading and aggressive in-game purchase practices in Diablo Immortal and Call of Duty Mobile. That probe is more than a headline — it sets a legal and regulatory precedent that could be applied to EA’s FUT (FIFA Ultimate Team) mechanics, pack sales, currency bundles and time-limited promotions. For players, streamers and merch sellers, the stakes are clear: transparency, odds disclosure and how publishers design purchase flows are under scrutiny in 2026.

What Italy’s AGCM found in the Activision probes (January 2026)

In early 2026 the Italian Autorità Garante della Concorrenza e del Mercato (AGCM) launched two formal investigations into Activision. The regulator’s main concerns include:

• Design elements that encourage extended play sessions and impulse spending, especially among minors.
• Use of bundle pricing and virtual currency packs that make it hard to understand the real euro value of purchases.
• Promotions that pressure players into spending to avoid missing rewards or progression.

“These practices, together with strategies that make it difficult for users to understand the real value of the virtual currency used in the game and the sale of in-game currency in bundles, may influence players as consumers — including minors — leading them to spend significant amounts… without being fully aware of the expenditure involved.” — AGCM press release (Jan 2026)

The AGCM explicitly targeted “free-to-play” titles where monetization relies on virtual currency, microtransactions and randomized reward mechanics. The regulator is looking at how mechanics, UI/UX and promotional timing combine to create pressure — what many call “dark patterns.”

Why the Activision probe could map to EA’s FUT (and why that matters to you)

At a mechanical level, the AGCM’s concerns translate directly to the core elements of FIFA Ultimate Team:

• Randomized pack openings: FUT packs function similarly to loot boxes — you pay (or use FUT Points) for a randomized set of player cards with rare outcomes.
• Virtual currency bundles: FUT Points and coin bundles are sold in tiers; the euro-to-currency conversion and effective cost-per-pack can be opaque to buyers.
• Time-limited promotions and scarcity: Team of the Week (TOTW), Flash SBCs (squad building challenges) and limited drops create FOMO-driven spending windows.
• Design nudges and presentation: Streamlined buy flows, celebratory pack animations and social proof (watching streamers open packs) can exacerbate impulsive purchases.

Those overlaps mean the AGCM’s legal reasoning — focused on transparency, consumer autonomy and protection of minors — can be adapted to examine FUT sales and EA’s marketing. Regulators often copy legal frameworks across cases: an investigation targeting design-driven monetization in one big publisher gives other agencies a blueprint to open probes into similar systems.

Legal tools and outcomes AGCM could seek

If AGCM extends its approach to FUT-style mechanics or if other regulators follow, potential enforcement actions could include:

• Orders to disclose explicit odds for randomized rewards on all in-game packs and promotions.
• Requirements to show the real-money cost of virtual currency bundles per item or pack.
• Restrictions on how minors are targeted or on the design elements that induce prolonged play and purchases.
• Fines and mandated refunds where consumers were misled.
• Operational changes — e.g., limits on time-limited promotions or mandatory cooling-off periods for microtransactions.

Context: why 2026 is a turning point for loot boxes and in-game purchases

Regulatory momentum has been building for years — from Belgium’s early loot box rulings to consumer-protection attention in multiple jurisdictions. In late 2025 and early 2026, two trends intensified:

• Regulators moved from theory to enforcement. Investigations like AGCM’s signal a shift from debating whether loot boxes are harmful to actively policing how monetization is implemented.
• Policy focus broadened beyond gambling labels. Authorities are now focusing on consumer protection, transparency and the use of dark patterns — not just whether a mechanic counts as gambling under criminal law.

That means publishers can no longer rely on the “we’re not gambling” defense alone. Instead, regulators are asking: are you being transparent about cost? Are minors being protected? Are design choices coercive? Those are the questions that make FUT and other big microtransaction systems vulnerable in 2026.

Practical impact on FUT players, streamers and the merch market

Here’s how enforcement could ripple through the ecosystem and what you can do about it now.

For FUT players: protect your wallet and your team

• Track real spending. Record purchases in a simple spreadsheet or finance app. Convert FUT Points bundles to an effective euro cost per pack so you know what you’re paying.
• Use parental controls and purchase caps. Set console or platform spending limits, and require passwords for purchases. If a minor account is linked, restrict buying capacity until regulators or publishers improve disclosure.
• Join community-led pack tracking. Communities collect data on pack odds and market impacts. Follow trusted groups for transparency and early warnings about questionable promotions.
• Avoid FOMO buys during drops. If a pack requires stacking multiple purchases for a “chance,” treat that as a high-risk spend. Consider using coins or the transfer market as alternatives.
• Document suspect flows. If a promotion hides the euro cost or bundles currency in a confusing way, keep screenshots and transaction records — they’ll be useful if regulators expand probes or for consumer complaints.

For streamers and content creators

• Disclose sponsored content and purchases. Transparency is good PR and reduces regulatory scrutiny.
• Avoid encouraging unsafe purchase behaviors. Highlight odds, true cost and recommend safe spending practices on streams to build trust.
• Educate your audience. Run short segments explaining conversion rates, pack economics and how to spot misleading bundles — that adds real value to your channel.

For merch sellers and drop organizers

• Prepare for stricter ad rules. If regulators clamp down on aggressive promotions, advertising for timed drops and limited editions may need clearer price anchors and age targeting.
• Verify legality of in-game tie-ins. If you sell physical items tied to in-game drops or bundle keys, ensure the sale flow transparently shows the redemption value and does not misrepresent scarcity.
• Document compliance steps. Keep records of how you verify customer age and how you communicate pricing and conversion details in case authorities request proof of fair practice.

How publishers might adapt — and what that means for your FUT strategy

Publishers react fast when regulation bites. Based on 2025–2026 trends, here are likely moves EA (and similar companies) might take — and how to adapt:

• Publishers may disclose odds more prominently. If EA is required to show pack odds and comparative cost-per-pack, that reduces asymmetry. Players should use odds data to decide whether a pack is worth the spend.
• Transparent pricing instead of opaque currency bundles. Expect more publishers to offer packs with direct euro pricing or clearer currency conversion breakdowns. For players, this makes cross-market pricing comparisons easier.
• Shift to guaranteed rewards or direct purchases. Some companies could move toward direct purchase options (buy a specific player card) or guaranteed-reward bundles to avoid legal risk. That would fundamentally change FUT market dynamics and the value of current card speculation.
• Subscriptions and season passes might expand. A predictable subscription model reduces reliance on randomized mechanics. Players who prefer predictable value should evaluate subscription offers as an alternative to gambling-like packs.

Market consequences to watch for

• Short-term volatility: Announcements of probes or policy changes often spike trading activity and coin inflation/deflation in FUT marketplaces.
• Shift in influencer content: Streamers may move from pack openings to tutorials, gameplay, and market analysis if pack-centric monetization weakens.
• Merch demand could shift: If publishers reduce randomized sales in-game, physical and digital direct-purchase merchandise could become a bigger revenue stream.

Advanced strategies — what savvy players and sellers should do in 2026

Don’t wait for regulators to act. Use the AGCM probe as a catalyst to protect assets and adapt strategies.

• Diversify acquisition channels. Don’t rely only on packs. Use the transfer market, SBCs and guaranteed-player programs to build your team.
• Hedge rare card investments. If you spec on limited cards, spread risk across several bets and track regulatory news that might change supply mechanics.
• Implement compliance-first operations for drops. Merch and drop operators should create audit trails, explicit age checks and clear pricing language now — it’s cheaper than retrofitting compliance after an enforcement action.
• Leverage community transparency. Host or join public pack-odds tracking databases. Publishers may be forced to provide data anyway; having organized community datasets positions you to react faster.

What regulators can legally force publishers to change (realistic scenarios)

Regulators like AGCM typically have a range of measures they can impose short of banning a product. For FUT, realistic outcomes could include:

• Mandatory odds disclosure: Clear percentages for each rarity in every pack type.
• Refunds and fines: For misleading advertisements or bundled currency that obscures real cost.
• Limits on targeting minors: Age verification or default purchase blocks on accounts identified as minors.
• Restrictions on dark-pattern UI: Features designed to trick players into purchases may be outlawed or limited.

These are enforceable actions and have been used in consumer protection contexts historically. The key difference in 2026 is that regulators acknowledge digital design and UX as central to consumer harm, not just the presence of a randomized reward.

Key takeaways — actionable cheat-sheet

• Italy AGCM’s Activision probes (Jan 2026) target dark patterns, currency bundling and pressure-based promotions — a blueprint that could apply to FUT.
• FUT mechanics overlap with AGCM’s concerns: randomized packs, opaque currency bundles and time-limited drops.
• Players: start tracking real spend, use parental controls and avoid FOMO buys.
• Streamers: disclose and educate — it’s better for reputation and less risky legally.
• Merch sellers: adopt compliance-first flows, transparent pricing and robust age checks.
• Publishers: expect more transparency, potential guaranteed-reward offerings and subscription models.

Final predictions: where this goes in 2026

Expect these trends through 2026:

• Copycat investigations: Other EU and national regulators will use AGCM’s reasoning to open their own probes into big publishers.
• Policy harmonization: The EU and larger jurisdictions will push for standardized odds disclosure and anti-dark-pattern rules.
• Business model evolution: Publishers will accelerate tests of transparent alternatives — guaranteed purchases, subscriptions and direct-market options — to reduce regulatory risk.

For FUT players and sellers that means more transparency and less mystery — and a potentially healthier market that values skill and investment strategy over luck-driven spend. But in the short term, volatility and targeted enforcement actions could disrupt drop schedules, influencer content strategies and the secondary market.

What you should do next (practical checklist)

1. Start a simple spending log for FUT purchases and set monthly limits.
2. Enable parental controls and require authentication for all in-game purchases.
3. Follow AGCM updates and EU consumer-protection announcements — regulatory outcomes may take months but will change practices.
4. If you’re a seller or creator, audit your marketing and drop flows for clarity, age checks and transparent pricing.
5. Join community data groups that track pack odds, market moves and regulatory news for early signals.

Call to action

Don’t wait for a regulator to change the rules on you. Sign up for our FUT Alerts newsletter to get real-time breakdowns of pack odds, market-moving regulatory updates and smart strategies for navigating drops and bundles in 2026. Join our community to track enforcement rollouts and share audit-ready receipts and proofs that protect consumers and creators alike.

Stay informed. Spend smarter. Protect your community. Subscribe now and get our free pack-cost calculator and a step-by-step guide to safe in-game spending.

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